The ByteTree Track Record and Our Story So Far

ByteTree Market Health Update; Issue 45

Leaving the old world for pastures new

Sometimes you have to make big decisions, and by 2015, I had had enough. I left my big job in fund management at HSBC for pastures new. ByteTree no longer had to remain a low-key research project, and I embraced alternative media. There were a series of lively chats on Tip TV with Zak Mir and the legendary Bill Hubbard. Here are a couple of clips (links in captions below) from 2015/2016 when my fair value was around $700, and on-chain activity was growing rapidly. They were exciting times.

Source: Tip TV Finance. Trajectory for US rates remains upwards; The ‘doughnut factor’ in spending, Bitcoin coming of age, published 17th December 2015.
Source: Tip TV Finance. Gold on top of the commodity market, Bitcoin continuing to 697, published 25th February 2016.

Bitcoin is no bubble

Bitcoin has links to the FANGs because it is part internet stock. However, the big difference is that it trades close to its fair value of $8,070, whereas the FANGs trade at bubble valuations. The old world of finance still chuckles disparagingly at Bitcoin yet are knee-deep in the FANGs, having slated them a decade ago. They were late to the party on gold, late on the FANGs, and will be late on Bitcoin. The old world is always fashionably late, not because they are naïve or stupid, but because they are chained and embedded in a system that resists change, especially when it comes to new asset classes they are suspicious of.

Network demand strategy track record

It is high time I updated you on the track record for the network demand strategy. We have been publishing the score for several months, and it has performed well. This has been recorded on Token Sets where the strategy has delivered 74% since 27th February 2020, in contrast to bitcoin’s 21.7% as seen below.

Source: Token Sets. BTC Network Demand Set II — BYTE, 30th September 2020.

ByteTree and Bitstamp

We have teamed-up with Bitstamp to produce a comprehensive report featuring key research on Bitcoin’s Value Drivers. Access the report here.


Dollar indices are all similar

Source: Bloomberg. Dollar indices as described since 2005.

Bitcoin has struggled during the dollar surges

Source: Bloomberg. DXY (inverted) and Bitcoin as described since 2013.

Network Demand Model

The score is 4 out of 6, with velocity and short-term spend remaining bearish.

Applied data for digital asset investors. ByteTree provides real-time data, fundamentals, technical and deep blockchain market analysis for Bitcoin, and more.

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