This past year has seen $9.3bn invested in Bitcoin via the ETFs (and funds), and they now collectively own 809,105 BTC between them. That is 4.7% of the known active total Bitcoin supply and has become the single most important, measurable source of demand.

ByteTree data collected on Saturday 29 May confirmed the ByteTree Network demand model had downgraded to a score of 2 out of 6. That means Bitcoin’s underlying network activity has slumped. I shall highlight a few major developments, but please see the Network Demand Model for more information. This is what we are seeing.

On-chain transactions have dropped off a cliff. The 4-year average, which includes a slump in 2018, is 1.67 million transactions per week. Last week saw 1.51 million. Notice the sharp decline following the late 2017 Bitcoin price peak.

The price of Bitcoin has recovered back to the $40,000 zone, having touched $30,000 last Wednesday. That was a day from hell, and the bounce will go down in the record books. I will update you on the key things to watch out for in Bitcoin under the Network Demand model section.

I want to revisit the gold market, which broke back above $1,900 this morning. That was the high from 2011, so it’s an important level. There is still so much confusion between Bitcoin and gold. My view is clear. …

It has been a miserable month for Bitcoin, especially the last ten days. While these down days have been tough, the worst ones have been linked to events.

Recent key events

18 May — China bans financial, payment institutions from cryptocurrency business.

18 May — OCC to review crypto-related guidance issued under former Acting Comptroller Brian Brooks, who is now the Head of Binance US.

13 May — Musk says crypto energy use “insane” and Binance under investigation by Justice Department and the IRS.

11 May — Bitcoin miners reduce their inventories. They normally take advantage of market strength, but they break the…

Bitcoin has much in common with the tech sector, especially social media and other internet-related stocks. I became excited last autumn when Bitcoin started to outperform a buoyant NASDAQ at the time. That saw a three-year relative high (green line break) followed by an all-time relative high in Q1 this year (red line break).

Bitcoin and Nasdaq

I have written much on these pages describing Bitcoin’s sweet spot. Important factors include robust technicals, macro tailwinds, positive investment flows (people buying it), and above all, robust on-chain network data. I shall go through these in turn.


The long-term picture remains bullish as the 200-day moving average is happily rising. The trend has slowed, but even the best space rockets eventually run low on fuel.

Positive trend

DOGE arrived in late 2013 at the height of the market. It wasn’t exactly serious, but it certainly caught peoples’ attention. Unlike Bitcoin, with a 10-minute block interval, DOGE’s blocks came every minute.

With everything sped up, DOGE completed six halvings by early 2015, with none since. It has settled down with a new supply rate of 13.5 million DOGE per day, and as a result, there are 130 billion DOGE in circulation, growing at 3.8% per annum. Like Bitcoin, this growth rate (or inflation rate) will tend towards zero over time.

We joke about DOGE, but for some reason…

With 312,500 BTC mined since the last halving in May 2020, there are one million BTC that need to be mined before the next halving. That is expected to take place on 6 May 2024. At that time, 93.8% of the 21 million final total supply of Bitcoin will have been mined.

Bitcoin doubling is so much more fun than halving (note: Bitcoin joke). It was only four months ago that I wrote about Bitcoin’s 19th doubling when the price touched $31,457.28 on 2 January 2021.

Then yesterday, as Europe was enjoying morning coffee, we witnessed the 20th doubling in the price of Bitcoin as it broke through $62,914.56 for the first time.

This week I have written an open letter to Daniela Cambone-Taub. She will be hosting the debate between Frank Giustra and Michael Saylor. These are prominent people in the gold and Bitcoin communities.

Giustra publicly challenged Saylor to debate his thesis on gold and Bitcoin. He claims Saylor uses friendly media outlets and has not been effectively challenged to date. Saylor ran a poll, asking whether he should debate Giustra. In a vote by 20,684 respondents on Twitter, 90.3% said yes. It’ll be fun to watch.

Daniela Cambone-Taub is the Editor-at-Large & Anchor at Stansberry Research, following a successful 12-year…

Applied data for digital asset investors. ByteTree provides real-time data, fundamentals, technical and deep blockchain market analysis for Bitcoin, and more.

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