As of this morning, there are 148,012 blocks that will be mined ahead of the next halving. That was forecast to arrive in May 2024, but given the reduction of Chinese hashing power, halving looks likely to be delayed until 20 August 2024 (ByteTree forecast).

With 6.25 BTC per block (plus fees), that means 925,000 BTC are coming to market over the next three years. At that point, 19,687,500 BTC will have been mined, or 93.8% of the 21 million total.

Bitcoin doesn’t operate around the traditional calendar. It is split into epochs, which are approximately every four years but…


The latest crypto business planning to list is the stablecoin provider Circle. They are coming to market via a SPAC, Concord (CND), with backing from Marshall Wace, Fidelity Management & Research Co and Third Point LLC, who are financing the deal with $415m. Circle is expected to be valued at $4.5bn and will trade with the ticker CRCL.

In early 2014, I attended a Coinscrum event (a fabulous Bitcoin networking group) hosted by Circle’s CEO, Jeremy Allaire. …


A real-world case for crypto payment rails now seems inevitable, courtesy of the Basel III rules, which are impacting the inner workings of the gold market. As regulators put up barriers, technology comes to the rescue. The invention of Bitcoin, and its payment rails, will improve the functioning of the gold market, enabling it to thrive for another thousand years.

I spoke to Ross Norman, CEO of MetalsDaily, who had this to say:

“Under Basel III, bullion banks will be required to set aside additional capital against unallocated gold held on their balance sheets. The so-called Net Stable Funding Ratio…


The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) remains the largest Bitcoin fund in the world, holding an estimated 653,847 BTC. ByteTree’s Bitcoin fund data shows all the Bitcoin funds hold 794,520 BTC, which means GBTC represents 82% of all BTC held by funds. It’s a giant.

Established in 2013 by Barry Silbert, it was way ahead of the curve. To launch at a time when Bitcoin couldn’t be held by a traditional fund, Grayscale adopted a closed-ended fund structure. That means it is a bit like a company that holds BTC on its balance sheet while investors own shares in the company…


After the roller coaster ride in Bitcoin in recent weeks, I asked three of the leading ETF providers what would make their institutional clients allocate more money to Bitcoin?

Daniel Masters, the Executive Chairman for CoinShares, said:

To the many institutions around the Globe who have been studying crypto — this is the time to step in. Prices have dropped considerably in light of ESG concerns, Chinese crackdowns and wider Government and regulatory intervention. This news is now discounted in the market. What remains is the fact bitcoin is the North Star of the crypto movement and is the most…


Over the past 30 trading days, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has seen an average daily trading volume of $450m. With a market cap of $6.1bn, the company sees 7.3% of its stocks change hands each day.

Contrast that to the $23bn Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which trades $350m per day or 1.5% of its stock. I compare the value traded of MSTR and GBTC below. Yesterday MSTR’s value traded was 329% greater than GBTC.

MICROSTRATEGY VALUE TRADED COMPARED TO GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST


This past year has seen $9.3bn invested in Bitcoin via the ETFs (and funds), and they now collectively own 809,105 BTC between them. That is 4.7% of the known active total Bitcoin supply and has become the single most important, measurable source of demand.


ByteTree data collected on Saturday 29 May confirmed the ByteTree Network demand model had downgraded to a score of 2 out of 6. That means Bitcoin’s underlying network activity has slumped. I shall highlight a few major developments, but please see the Network Demand Model for more information. This is what we are seeing.

On-chain transactions have dropped off a cliff. The 4-year average, which includes a slump in 2018, is 1.67 million transactions per week. Last week saw 1.51 million. Notice the sharp decline following the late 2017 Bitcoin price peak.


The price of Bitcoin has recovered back to the $40,000 zone, having touched $30,000 last Wednesday. That was a day from hell, and the bounce will go down in the record books. I will update you on the key things to watch out for in Bitcoin under the Network Demand model section.

I want to revisit the gold market, which broke back above $1,900 this morning. That was the high from 2011, so it’s an important level. There is still so much confusion between Bitcoin and gold. My view is clear. …


It has been a miserable month for Bitcoin, especially the last ten days. While these down days have been tough, the worst ones have been linked to events.

Recent key events

18 May — China bans financial, payment institutions from cryptocurrency business.

18 May — OCC to review crypto-related guidance issued under former Acting Comptroller Brian Brooks, who is now the Head of Binance US.

13 May — Musk says crypto energy use “insane” and Binance under investigation by Justice Department and the IRS.

11 May — Bitcoin miners reduce their inventories. They normally take advantage of market strength, but they break the…

ByteTree.com

Applied data for digital asset investors. ByteTree provides real-time data, fundamentals, technical and deep blockchain market analysis for Bitcoin, and more.

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