The art of the HODL [hod’ul], whereby an investor buys and holds bitcoin for the long-term, has been a great strategy for those with the bottle — or the luck. If lots of people buy bitcoin, its price will go to the moon. It is a simple theory, which was tested in the 2013 and 2017 bull markets. It worked extremely well, until it didn’t.

Like all vibrant markets, the more the price rises, the more investors are drawn in. It is during these times that the network is at its most vibrant, and by implication, HODL is at its…


There are many theories doing the rounds to explain the recent price crash, but at ByteTree, we believe the bitcoin price is at risk because it is structurally overvalued compared to the size of its network. This methodology has been working well for a decade, so why should this time be different?

I’ll get to that, but what just happened to Bitcoin? There’s an old saying that it’s better to travel than arrive. The official adoption of bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador was something to celebrate. …


Until recently, ByteTree has been a crypto research and fund management company I founded some years ago. Gold will play a much bigger role in the future as we aim to offer the expertise to blend the old world with the new.


  • Digital cash will shake up the global economy.
  • The central banks have FOMO. They should take the lead from Switzerland rather than China.
  • The private sector is better placed to design and operate digital money in a free society.

There is a sense of inevitability about digital money, principally because new technology, inspired by crypto, allows it. In part 3, we examine the case for central bank digital currency (CBDC) versus private digital currency (PDC).

A CBDC is digital “cash”, issued by the central bank, as opposed to a bank deposit, which many think to be digital. For a recap…


In part 1, we looked at the evolution of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), outlining their inevitability now the rabbit is out of the hat. In this article, we examine the CBDC landscape across the G20 nations, a group that represents 80% of world GDP. CBDCs have so far raised more questions than answers. They are complex, and one size doesn’t fit all. To get this right, we need to ask: what it is we want from them?

The International Money Forum (IMF) lists several advantages of CBDCs, such as financial inclusion and the countering of new private digital currencies…


In a recent report, the Bank of England stated that “A Central Bank Digital Currency (“CBDC”) would allow households and businesses to directly make electronic payments using money issued by the Bank of England”.

Currently, only the commercial banks have privileged access to their central bank, while businesses and consumers do not. A CBDC would change this, and there are far-reaching implications for the global economy and the reach of the state.

Most people think they already have digital money because there’s an app on their phone that links to their bank, but they don’t. They have deposits with their…


I have been writing about gold in Atlas Pulse since 2012 and have decided to move it to ByteTree as we embrace gold as part of the broader crypto conversation. I feel an understanding of the gold market enhances crypto analysis because that is how it was designed at the outset.


As of this morning, there are 148,012 blocks that will be mined ahead of the next halving. That was forecast to arrive in May 2024, but given the reduction of Chinese hashing power, halving looks likely to be delayed until 20 August 2024 (ByteTree forecast).

With 6.25 BTC per block (plus fees), that means 925,000 BTC are coming to market over the next three years. At that point, 19,687,500 BTC will have been mined, or 93.8% of the 21 million total.

Bitcoin doesn’t operate around the traditional calendar. It is split into epochs, which are approximately every four years but…


The latest crypto business planning to list is the stablecoin provider Circle. They are coming to market via a SPAC, Concord (CND), with backing from Marshall Wace, Fidelity Management & Research Co and Third Point LLC, who are financing the deal with $415m. Circle is expected to be valued at $4.5bn and will trade with the ticker CRCL.

In early 2014, I attended a Coinscrum event (a fabulous Bitcoin networking group) hosted by Circle’s CEO, Jeremy Allaire. …


A real-world case for crypto payment rails now seems inevitable, courtesy of the Basel III rules, which are impacting the inner workings of the gold market. As regulators put up barriers, technology comes to the rescue. The invention of Bitcoin, and its payment rails, will improve the functioning of the gold market, enabling it to thrive for another thousand years.

I spoke to Ross Norman, CEO of MetalsDaily, who had this to say:

“Under Basel III, bullion banks will be required to set aside additional capital against unallocated gold held on their balance sheets. The so-called Net Stable Funding Ratio…

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Applied data for digital asset investors. ByteTree provides real-time data, fundamentals, technical and deep blockchain market analysis for Bitcoin, and more.

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